Which Points Changes Matter?

We’re starting to see the first wave of points change information on different units (and factions) for 9E. But how many of them are actually relevant? Click to read on, or check out the Tactics Corner for more reviews and strategies.

A Parable

Before we dive into the main subject, dear readers, let us paint a hypothetical picture that I think may be illustrative. Imagine that you head down to the park one day and find that a race is being held there- people from all over the city have been gathered up and are going to do a half-mile run. So, we line up all the contestants- some of whom are professional athletes, some of whom are simply fitness enthusiasts, and some of whom are folks who’ve never run a race in their lives- and when the staring gun goes off, they all get to runnin’. As each contestant passes the finish line, we note down the total time they took (i.e. an absolute measure of their speed) and their placing in the race (i.e. a relative measure compared to the other racers.)

Obviously, we are going to see a bunch of different values here dependent on how fast the runners are and how they rank up compared to each other. We could use these rankings to easily separate out the best candidates for building a running team in a competitive event like the Olympics. Bu now, let us add in a complication- imagine that we have a magical ray gun we got from aliens that allows us to shoot any runner in the race and either increase or decrease their speed (our choice). So if we wander around the finish line after everyone has completed the event, shooting various people with various settings, and then have them all run a second race that is identical to the first, we will find something very interesting- in many cases, it may not matter what settings we use on the ray gun when determining the outcome of the race.

If we zap Usain Bolt, the fastest human alive, and drop his speed by a couple of miles per hour, this might mean he no longer wins the Olympics but he still is probably going to absolutely destroy the other competitors in our fictional race. And by the same token, if we use the gun on max settings to blast Computer Desk Kyle who spends his entire life doing data entry, he might jump massively up in the rankings of the race, but there’s no real guarantee that he is going to make the trophy stand of the event, even with the bonus. In fact, for the overwhelming majority of the participants, being blasted with the ray gun doesn’t mean anything; they go from being an essentially-random place in the rankings to a different (but still essentially random) place somewhere else in the rankings.

So What?

The point of this little fiction, if you haven’t seen it already, is thus: for the vast majority of units in the codex, these price changes don’t mean anything. A lot is being made of the percentage changes for various factions, and I’ve seen some images going around showing the overall increases that various factions got, which people are using to claim various “winners” and “losers,” but I’m here to say that those images are not just meaningless, but actually actively deceptive (although not on purpose, I don’t think.)

As with our race, the changes in points on most units just don’t matter. They are largely pointless, from the perspective of competitive players. Now that’s not to say that GW shouldn’t have changed prices, or that the scaling of prices in the game as a whole had no purpose, but since what we care about most is the rankings of our different units and how they stack up against each other as mutually-exclusive options for spending points on, most units will simply remain irrelevant.

To grab some random examples: Lords of Contagion went from 95pts to 100pts, which is significantly below the ratio that most other units changed at (which was typically around a 15% increase.) Does this matter at all? No, it does not. The Lord of Contagion was not used before and he will not be used now, either, despite theoretically getting significantly better (or faster, in the context of our previous analogy.) Similarly, Howling Banshees went from 11pts to 15pts per model, which is way above the rate that most things increased at, but this change is also irrelevant. Howling Banshees were not used before and will not be used now.

In fact, there is only a very limited subclass of units that these point changes have any meaningful effect on, and those are units that either were good previously (and continue to be good or lost that status) as well as units that were on the edge of being good (and got enough of an improvement to now qualify legitimately for being so.) Outside of these units, the points changes are not really relevant for the purposes of competitive play, because they simply don’t affect which units we see on the table at all. Oh, there will be a small handful of exceptions where changes to the meta and rules bring something into viability, of course, but by and large most units from most codices will continue to not be seen in most games at tournaments. It’s simply the nature of the beast, that only the upper percentage of options will see significant play.

That is why those “overall change” charts you may have seen floating around various competitive spaces are so pointless- because what happens to most of the units in a codex is irrelevant. You could universally increase the points of 90% of the units in a book by as much as you wanted, but as long as you chose the right 90% it wouldn’t have any effect on armies at all.

Building For Tomorrow

The takeaway from all of this should be that when you are comparing points costs for your new units going forward, be on the lookout for two things: units that were okay before and got a big points drop (comparatively, of course- very few things actually went down in points) and things that were good before and how they changed. Hopefully you were aware of what was good in your faction before, and had at least a passing idea of what was middling-decent; from that and the points changes, you should be able to start to build up ideas about what is likely to work in the new edition of the game. Of course, a shifting metagame, new missions, and new tournament rules will all have a significant effect on the sorts of armies that you’ll want to build as well, but those are concerns that are still quite a ways off in the future yet- especially with social distancing and isolation orders still in place.

Right now is the time when there is going to be the most innovation in lists that the whole of 9th Edition will see- people trying out every possible idea to see what works and what doesn’t, bringing out every pet unit that they’ve ever wanted to field and every strategy they’ve ever wanted to try out. And all of that is well and good, but through it keep in mind the above- most strategies, most units, most game plans simply don’t work and will need to be discarded in favor of something else more viable. The uppermost percentage of units and builds that are viable are, by definition, quite small compared to the whole, so be open to lots of ideas, but be prepared to discard most of them in pursuit of a list that will win.

As always, remember that you can get your wargaming supplies at great discounts every day from the Frontline Gaming store, whether you’re looking to start a new army or expand an existing one.

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About abusepuppy

AbusePuppy is the one who has been ruining 40K for everyone this whole time. He is also searching for the six-fingered man and is one of the three people who know the secret recipe for coke (not the soda, the illegal drug.)

20 Responses to “Which Points Changes Matter?”

  1. Avatar
    Dakkath July 15, 2020 8:23 am #

    So, where are these point changes everyone is talking about?

    • Avatar
      abusepuppy July 15, 2020 7:14 pm #

      GW has shown us some previews of the new Primaris units, and there are some leaks available various places with point values for other units.

  2. Avatar
    Matt, the Guy Who Prefers Fantasy July 15, 2020 9:01 am #

    I can’t really get behind this analogy, its too unrealistic. Can we say that the speed-altering ray-gun is given to us by Odin, or an evil genie? It just stresses credulity less that way.

  3. Avatar
    AngryPanda July 15, 2020 9:08 am #

    Gitta hand it to them. Increasing the point Costa of an overspecialied CC unit Nobody uses already ist auch an early 2000s GW move it makes me feel all nostalgic for not being old as dirt.

    • Avatar
      abusepuppy July 15, 2020 7:15 pm #

      Yeah, it really is. It’s especially comical and nostalgic because they just made a new plastic kit for the unit, and then immediately invalidated it with a huge points increase for no reason.

      • Lord Paddington
        Lord Paddington July 16, 2020 5:56 am #

        This is made even more comical by the fact the main thing that made them interesting (overwatch denial) is now functionally irrelevant

        • Avatar
          abusepuppy July 16, 2020 8:01 am #

          Even more so because simply touching a unit in combat (but not killing it) is a lot less valuable against stuff like vehicles now. They’re basically screwed from every possible direction.

          • Avatar
            Dakkath July 16, 2020 11:39 am
            #

            Slaanesh approves

  4. Avatar
    Anonymous July 15, 2020 11:08 am #

    This masterpiece of commentary from someone renowned for spamming Eldar Flyers.

    There’s no way that a larger number than 10% of a codex will be playable now that the abusive as shit stacking -1 debuffs are gone.

    • Avatar
      abusepuppy July 15, 2020 7:17 pm #

      The 9E points adjustments have, if anything, narrowed the field of which Craftworld units are viable in the game. And Craftworld armies haven’t been using stacked -1s since… what, nine months ago?

  5. Avatar
    Visitor July 15, 2020 12:12 pm #

    I really don’t get why they create such a mess with their point update, making nonsensical adjustments across the board, rendering whole factions unplayable in the process.If you’re attempting the effort to adjust all point values going into the new edition why not use this opportunity to… well make the models sort of work with the new rules in a good way? I mean, I don’t HAVE to play Warhammer all the time, I CAN spent the next year painting stuff until things hopefully get fixed by a codex but it’s them losing money, not me…

    • Avatar
      Josh July 15, 2020 1:32 pm #

      I think the point here is that this is just to get models playable. Any real changes will always be in the codexes. That is how they make their money after all. Selling product will come big time when they release a new codex with new models and limited edition book and dice and novel and all that other stuff. Right now is just selling Indomitus box and other rules books.

    • Avatar
      Ohlmann July 15, 2020 1:32 pm #

      I get how they end up with that result. It’s a mix of rules and point not being written only by game designers, conflicting egos between people, and heavy compartimentization.

      The point book was almost certainly not done by the rule writers at all. Rather clearly, an intern throwed a bunch of formula in excel, and then a bunch of executives did a bunch of manual adjustment.

  6. Avatar
    Pyrothem July 15, 2020 5:09 pm #

    As others have pointed out the Point changes are nonsensical. Balance had nothing to do with these changes what so ever.

    They wanted less units at 2000 points and just slapped almost every unit with a point hike up to a last digit of 0 or 5.

    Anyone that says there was any consideration to balance I just need to point you to the Necron Obelisk. Voted worst model in 8th: 40 point point hike.

    • Avatar
      Jace July 15, 2020 7:36 pm #

      Fits in perfectly with the article, garbage unit stayed garbage 😀

  7. Avatar
    TheRealJohnWilliam July 16, 2020 12:26 pm #

    Point increases are seen across the board. Not one army got by without a point increase.

    The game itself is difficult to balance point wise, which is why it looks like they went with making the “base model” be a set amount of points and weapon “upgrades / swap outs” have a cost associated with it. That way it’s easier to adjust points where it is needed. “Is the base model too expensive, or is it the weapon upgrade that you give it?”

    Overall this looks to be like a starting point (heh) for the game, while they wait for more information to funnel in from sources like tournaments.

    It’s also difficult to know exactly how all these models will perform on the tabletop now that 9th edition has introduced new terrain rules, and secondary objectives.

    Much like how the start of 8th was rife with crazy lists that prompted major changes to the rules, 9th will have its own sort of nonsense going on.

    I can see and understand the frustration that this will have on the players, but I’m not sure if there’s a better solution to it either way.

  8. Avatar
    El_Jairo July 21, 2020 1:13 am #

    Yeah John, I heard something in the same vein from Tabletop Titans. They are play-testers for 9th edition and they told us to wait for the codexes to have all the points to make sense.

    So what I understand by this is that some units will be better in their new Codex or they are better in the 9th Edition rules because missions are not all about killing alone.

    I think however that this is a wrong way to handle point changes because those units still have their old rules. Yet again, if I may be a little cynical, this is a good way to make sure that the new codexes sell well.

    What does irritate me is that the point changes look like a Excell formula: a flat tax of +3 points for infantry, +5 for Characters up to 100 points and so forth. And then they made exceptions for pet units which typically look like space merengue new models.

    To justify my salt, I am a Drukhari player that came back from a hiatus just before the Rona hit and I just got one game of 8th in last mobth. The best version for Drukhari.
    And my guess is that Drukhari will not be as good anymore for two cycles.
    Oh well, Xenos never will get the same love as Space Merengue.

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