Analyzing the new ITC Scoring Formula

Hey guys! Steven Pampreen and DeeJay McBride here to talk about the new ITC formula! We will describe how the new math affects your ITC scores and rankings, comparing the old formula to the new one and explain how they are different.

This article will take a Q&A format to answer some questions you may have about the new ITC formula. If your question was not answered, please leave it in the comments below, and we will answer them!

What Did the Old Formula Look Like?

The old formula really favored the LVO and punished other events. Going 4-2 at LVO was nearly the same as winning 1st at a major. The LVO was given vastly more weight than other events in your overall score. (Although that was an unintended consequence and not done by design! -Reecius)

Was the Problem Just LVO?

The image below shows us another issue with the old formula. The only way to get points was by winning events. Second and third place got the same or less points than placing first at a small event. There is even a point where getting middle of the pack at a RTT gets more points than solid finish at large events. Essentially the formula penalized losing but didn’t reward winning. So someone who lost twice in a 6 round event got the same score as someone who lost twice in a 3 round event.

What Does the New Formula Look Like?

The new formula is very different in its incentives after about 30 people, it kind of stops mattering how many people are in the event as long as you place high. If you’re in a larger event, you have more leeway and can get away with 3rd or 4th and still get a high score. The real huge change is in the 5th through 10th rankings. It’s a little tough to tell but 10th place at a major gets more points than winning an RTT. Compare this to the old formula where getting a 10th place finish at a major could actually get you LESS points than LAST place at an RTT. With the new formula, even though more points are awarded at RTTs in regards to first place. [Not sure where the previous sentence was going, but just sort’ve stopped] I have a feeling we will see them drop out of importance in a big way as people get solid finishes at GTs and Majors for more points than winning a local RTT. Even a 16 person RTT getting you 180 points is now the same as finishing 6th at a major. The part that will make LVO still matter is that you see the line gets more shallow the more people are in it. So while it will still be tons and tons of points, I have a feeling that placing well at GTs will be worth more than just showing up at LVO. There won’t be any more occurrences where 4-2 results at LVO winning factions over someone with a GT win.

Will This Change the Best of Faction in ITC?

For the people competing for the best in the ITC, the game-plan will have remain unchanged: Go win events. However, I would say that finishing high at majors and winning GTs will be a possible winning strategy as opposed to the all or nothing majors. This could be the year where someone is in a position to win it all at LVO without having actually won anything or even winning LVO, itself.

It also means that people cannot win a few RTTs then do well at the LVO and place 1st for the year. To achieve best in faction, you’re going to need to excel in a large number of events.

What are the Biggest Changes?

The trend line slope for points is much shallower with the new ITC formula. In 2018, being middle of the pack at an GT would net you about ~30 points, however in 2019, being middle of the pack will get you about ~100 points.

The person who places first at those same events in 2018 would have scored ~130 points, while in 2019 they would score ~210 points. This means the person in the middle of the pack in 2018 would have earned roughly ~23% of the points that the first place person scored. That same person in 2019 will have scored ~47.6% of the points of the person who placed first.

This means the spread of the points is smaller between the 1st and 16th place at a GT.

What Does a Smaller Spread Mean?

This means that if you have an off day at an event, you don’t lose as much. 2018 had a very much a ‘go big or go home’ formula, while 2019 is a lot more forgiving for scoring middle of the pack at an event.

Can I Get Best In Faction By Consistently Getting Middle of the Pack?

That depends on how many events you attend and what faction you are playing. If you are playing a popular faction like Ynnari or AM and attending one RTT a month — that’s not going to happen. You simply aren’t generating enough points to be able to score best in faction, which means that the scoring is working as intended. In the end, the person who is the best in faction should have lots of games under their belt, and should be winning often.

However, if you are playing a rarely played faction like Renegade Knights or Grey Knights, and you attend an RTT every weekend and a GT every month, with at least one showing at a Major (64+ players) then it’s quite possible for you to score Best In Faction — where in 2018 you would have been beaten by someone who attended 8 man RTTs and went 4-2 at LVO. This is also working as intended, as you are playing a (probably) weaker army and playing often.

And remember, Frontline Gaming sells gaming products at a discount, every day in their webcart!

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8 Responses to “Analyzing the new ITC Scoring Formula”

  1. Duz_ March 25, 2019 8:18 am #

    Good to see this is being addressed
    The super majors were really skewing the system

    Should hopefully make the top 10 more dynamic going forward too. 🙂

    Ps. Best in faction should be for pure armies only. 😉

  2. ujayim March 25, 2019 8:31 am #

    Outstanding.

    For someone who gave up playing last year and missed 5 months of local RTTs because he knew he wasn’t able to make it to LVO and had no chance of scoring, the new changes mean a lot.

  3. John March 25, 2019 8:52 am #

    There was a lot of discussion about the differences, but I still have yet to see the actual formula being used. When I checked FLG site last the previous formula was removed but nothing was put in its place. Can you post the formula?

    • Reecius
      Reecius March 25, 2019 8:58 am #

      The BCP guys made the choice to keep that actual formula under their hat due to it being a trade secret now, and an important part of protecting what they’ve built. I only helped give feedback on the output, they did the heavy lifting with the actual math (which honestly, was beyond my mathematical education by quite a bit).

      • DarkRaptor March 25, 2019 10:29 am #

        BCP will be pulling together a calculator in the near future that will help you look at different points scenarios.

        • abusepuppy March 26, 2019 1:04 pm #

          Excellent, I think that’s what most people want. It’s less about being able to do it by hand or whatever and more about having the ability to say “given X, Y, and Z, I can expect a specific score and thus I need to do these certain things in order to get what I need.”

        • Venkarel March 27, 2019 5:38 am #

          So if I get enough inputs and outputs with the calculator I can figure out the formula you are using to construct your curve. Why not just publish the formula?

          • Venkarel March 27, 2019 5:46 am
            #

            Whops hit enter to fast. This also brings up an issue of transparency. I do not know of another “sport”ing game (hobby) that would tolerate this. How can I error check BCP? Why does BCP have this much power over the ITC? How can I guarantee that BCP is not shifting the “goal” post to favor players they know or like? How can I verify that the formula hasn’t changed throughout the season? Keeping this secret for “propitiatory” reasons is seems like a bad choice for the future of the game and the ITC.

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