Signals from the Frontline #627: LVO by the Numbers

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Show Notes

Date: 2-20-19


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  • The new release this week is the Dreaded Ambull, a Blackstone Fortress Expansion which you can get from Frontline through our web-store at a discount with FREE shipping options.

  • We put together a photo journal of the LVO 2019 for those interested in getting a better idea of the event as there’s so much more going on than just the big GW tournaments.

  • We’ve been extremely excited to start using the new tool we’ve built in conjunction with BCP to come up with some incredible tools. Also, huge thanks to Peter the Flacon who did a ton of work crunching these numbers.

  • Also, if you attended the 40k champs, AoS Champs, 40k Narrative, etc. please check your email inbox for the feedback form! We love getting that invaluable feedback to make sure we’re giving you the experience you want!
  • The ITC updates are on the way, please bear with us. Still hammering out the new formats and such and thanks so much to everyone that has sent in their feedback so far!

Upcoming ITC Events

Upcoming 40k ITC Events

Upcoming AoS ITC Events

40k ITC Top 10

Click here for full rankings.

Rank First Name Last Name Points Events
1 Simon Leen 228.12 2 of 5
2 Richard Siegler 200.32 2 of 5
3 Michael Ralston 192.47 2 of 5
4 Daniel Smith 174.81 2 of 5
5 Jimmy Prescott 162.38 2 of 5
6 David Ozawa 132.98 2 of 5
7 Namon Allen 128.36 2 of 5
8 David Lytle 126.61 2 of 5
9 Dan Monsalve 123.52 2 of 5
10 Jim Vesal 120.89 1 of 5

40k ITC Hobby Track Top 10

Click here for full rankings.

Rank First Name Last Name Points Events
1 Jim Vesal 120.89 1 of 5
2 Simon Leen 113.19 1 of 5
3 Tyson Augliere 100.92 1 of 5
4 Laren Ocasio 96.57 1 of 5
5 Harry Gieringer 92.51 1 of 5
6 David Lytle 89.3 1 of 5
7 Adam Martin 83.07 1 of 5
8 Tyler Bortel 81.99 1 of 5
8 Chris Ayala 81.99 1 of 5
10 Damion Spearman 78.84 1 of 5

AoS ITC Top 10

Click here for full rankings.

Rank First Name Last Name Points Events
1 Robbie Steinbring 117.02 1 of 5
2 Chase Reinhard 113.19 1 of 5
3 Adam Thompson 106.29 1 of 5
4 Emma Mangels 102.8 1 of 5
5 Derek Erlenbush 100.92 1 of 5
6 Matthew Obringer 91.38 1 of 5
7 Jeff West 89.3 1 of 5
8 Jack Ballard 86.96 1 of 5
9 Matt Beasley 85.89 1 of 5
10 Hank Adams 81.59 1 of 5

AoS ITC Hobby Track Top 10

Click here for full rankings.

Shadespire ITC Top 10

Click here for full rankings.

Tactics Corner

Completed Commissions


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8 Responses to “Signals from the Frontline #627: LVO by the Numbers”

  1. Avatar
    Alpharius Walks February 22, 2019 2:43 pm #

    Out of curiosity are the Second Chance RTT scores still going into this season or was that scrapped?

  2. Avatar
    CaptLysander February 23, 2019 6:58 pm #

    Anytime Reece says,”in his opinion”, they usually are getting changed in the next FAQ.

  3. ChrisG
    ChrisG February 24, 2019 4:24 am #

    Just be carefull when doing statistical analasys. For instance you cite Ultramarines being at a 45% winrate and Salamanders at 54% and therefore salamanders perhaps being better. But Ultramarines being widely regarded as the better faction will mean most people will flock to that. And the average space marine player will on average lose more games than win games due to the state of the codex. The few salamanders people will be more dedicated and probably have spent more time with their lists, upping their numbers. I would personally bet if you had a player with 5 games played with their ultramarines versus a similar player with 5 games played with their salamanders the ultramarines would wi more often than not. Same for a player with 100 games on ultramarines versus a player with 100 games on salamanders. The data here may be skewed with more of the ultramarines players being on the 5 games side while the salamanders players will be more loyal to their faction and be on the 100 games side.

    In league of legends for instance there have been cases where a champion is considered very OP in competetive play bt its overall winrate is abysmal. This can be due to something being very difficult and skill intensive to play at a high level. Yet people see it perform well (in warhammer terms: place top 8 often) so unskilled players try it and drag the overall winrates down qite a bit. I also think marines get dragged down quite a bit due to being a “beginners” faction with proportionally more unskilled players than other factions.

    That being said finally getting more data is very interesting and usefull and i can not wait to see what people will make from it.

    • Avatar
      Schmuvness February 24, 2019 4:46 am #

      Very good points you have there.

    • Avatar
      Kevin Lantz February 25, 2019 12:47 am #

      yeah it was interesting discovering out of the tau players, three took 5 yvharas and out of those, three of the yvharas were the three I brought. people with yvharas on average won 55% of their games =D

  4. Avatar
    Nick Wenker February 25, 2019 1:17 pm #

    I just think it’s very unfortunate that 8th edition has seen so much efforts by the playtesters and GW to create balance (and it’s certainly better across all factions than prior editions), yet competitive 40k in 8th keeps getting a black eye from a handful of things:

    – Overbearing units (Malefic Lords and Conscripts got fixed, but now we have the Castellan ruining the meta all by itself)
    – Ynarri (still 15-20% too high a win rate, highest of any faction, after taking top 3 spots at LVO a year ago)
    – Flyer spam (was an issue at start of 8th, got better, now seems back in full force with Aeldari, Drukhari, and Astra Militarum)
    – Oddball codex releases that are outlier points efficient (currently Drukhari)

    Given the great points adjustments in CA 2018 and all the codexes that have come out, it would be awesome to see a meta that doesn’t have Ynarri / Drukhari or Astra Militarum / Castellan trampling over everything and obscuring the great improvements that have been made to competitive 40k.

    • Michael Corr
      Michael Corr February 26, 2019 3:02 am #

      The Castellan is ruining the game for me. At a recent tournament, I faced triple Knights and Guard in two out of three games. One game featured two Castellans! It was kill points and end of game objectives. My army had absolutely no chance against them, the game was decided before even picking up a die.

      Both games were absolutely no fun for me and I can imaging my opponents getting much satisfaction from the game. It was simply pointing at each unit they wanted to delete in their shooting phase and removing them from the board.

      • Avatar
        Nick Wenker February 26, 2019 9:20 am #

        That sucks. Sounds horrible. I think none of the things I listed are very fun to play against if it feels too uphill. The March FAQ will have to do some heavy lifting.

Leave a Reply to Michael Corr