By the Numbers: Wave Serpents vs. Flyers by Mark H.


I love looking at stats! Check this out, sent to us by Mark H.

Hey Reecius,

I wrote a program to run 10,000 simulations of a Wave Serpent with Scatter Laser and Shuriken Cannon unloading on a flier.

The results were as follows (attached in a nice graph).  Feel free to share with the community.

Number of Hits  Percentage of S7 Hits   Percentage of S6 Hits

0               38.0%                   13.5%

1               37.2%                   22.0%

2               17.3%                   29.3%

3               5.7%                    21.4%

4               1.6%                    10.6%

5               0.2%                    2.8%

6               0.5%

Basically, 35.9% of the time, a wave serpent will get 0 S7 hits, 38% of the time, it’ll get 1, etc…

Hope you find this useful.

Love the site, as always.


I just tried the new Wave Serpent, and I have to say, they are AMAZING! Granted, I rolled hot, but for the points I was thoroughly impressed. -ed


About Reecius

The fearless leader of the intrepid group of gamers gone retailers at Frontline Gaming!

11 Responses to “By the Numbers: Wave Serpents vs. Flyers by Mark H.”

  1. Alex Yuen June 14, 2013 3:07 am

    something seem very wrong with those data. twin link take into account and also laser lock? how can scatter laser have 6 hit when it can only fire 4 shot. if the shield is take into account then why only 6 hit when the max number is 11 (7+4). if only 7 shot (scatter laster and Cannon) then how can i twin link gun be less than a not 100% TL gun when they are all hit on 6’s. The math just don’t make sense

    • Gordy June 14, 2013 10:28 am

      There’s a Scatter Laser and Shuriken Cannon, for 7 Str 6 shots total, plus a possible 7 more Str 7 shots from the Shield. I think you just missed that there was a Shuriken Cannon in the mix.

      • Alex Yuen June 14, 2013 10:45 am

        yep time to delete my comment. my phone mess up the layout on the chat that why nothing make any sense to me. once i am on my computer i see what he was talking about.

  2. Mark June 14, 2013 5:29 am

    It’s all factored in. The number of shots come from the scatter laser, which is twin-linked, if it hits, the Shuriken cannon is twin linked, if it misses it’s not.

    If the scatter laser hits, the shield is twin-linked, if it misses, it’s not.

    Laser lock makes the actual math so challenging, that running simulations to see the data is much more efficient.

    The S6 hits are from the scatter laser and Shuriken cannon, the s7 hits are for the serpent shield.

    • Alex Yuen June 14, 2013 9:57 am

      can you explain why the non 100% TL gun have less 0,1,2 hits then the 100% TL gun when their BS is the same? Why only 6 S7 hits when the TOTAL # of shot is 11? I know is rounding but they should add up to 100% but both don’t add up to 100. But that more a minor rounding thing.

      what really stun me is how can you get 5 S6 hit on a WS when you only got 3 shot?

      • Alex yuen June 14, 2013 10:31 am

        Ok i think i am reading it wrong on my phone layout.

  3. Reecius
    Reecius June 14, 2013 9:03 am

    I think the key is that the Wave Serpent is effective AA, maybe not optimal, but it gets the job done, particularly if you can get in the rear arc, which they often can do to their speed.

  4. The voice June 14, 2013 5:54 pm

    yea, in my games ive found 5 serpents means its oooookay…not great but will do for one or 2 flyers. 3 hell turkeys however. different story. Incidentally. Reece – do you or your guys play on vassal? Would be great to get a game.

  5. Vidar June 15, 2013 7:48 am

    Alex you are breaking stereotypes – not all Asians are good at math.

  6. APO1 June 18, 2013 10:41 am

    Sorry, i dont get the chart and im a engineer 😀

    Can someone explain?
    What’s the X-Axis?
    How did u come on 35,9%?

  7. Mr E June 21, 2013 10:37 pm

    I believe that it caps at 6 not because of total shot available but because no matter how captain insano good you roll even with re-rolls it is highly un-probable that you will roll between 7 and 11 hits, not to say that is is impossible after rolling so many times its bound to happen, once in 3,247,342,198 rolls but it happened,

    I think the more important thing to note is that you have about a 60% chance of getting one hit, and almost 50% chance of pulling 2, and almost a 30% chance of rolling 3, HITs mind you not pens or even glances

    not to mention when you fly them like i do(7-8 serpents stong) you have almost a 50% chance that one will hit 4 times in one turn, all statistics for shooting against the flying unit type